Germany and France Face Recession Alarm: Euro Stumbles with Five Consecutive Losses


The euro’s performance took a hit as the Eurozone, Germany, and France released weaker-than-expected PMI data for July. The euro exchange rate experienced a short dive, with indications of sustained decline over five consecutive trading days. This article provides trading suggestions for investors amidst the economic concerns surrounding the eurozone. With Germany’s economy potentially entering a recession and inflationary pressures still a concern, prudent trading strategies are advised.

1. Euro Against the Dollar: Short Dive Amid Weak PMI Data

The July PMI data for the eurozone, France, and Germany disappointed investors, resulting in a dip in the euro exchange rate. Traders should closely monitor the trend of the euro against the U.S. dollar, especially considering the potential for continuous decline. Despite recent highs, the euro now faces downward pressure, prompting investors to exercise caution. Reducing euro positions or considering bearish trading strategies may be prudent if the euro’s slide continues.

2. German Economy: Manufacturing PMI Signals Recession Risks

Germany, known as the “locomotive” of the European economy, saw its manufacturing PMI decline to 38.8, extending its downward trend since the beginning of the year. France’s PMI also hit a two-and-a-half-year low at 46.6. Such figures raise concerns about Germany’s economy falling into a recession. Investors should closely monitor German economic data and its impact on the euro’s trajectory. Adjusting trading positions to mitigate exposure to the euro during periods of economic deterioration may be advisable.

3. ECB Policy: Assessing the Impact on the Euro

The ECB’s recent rate hike, coupled with the softer economic data, may prompt calls for a policy pause. As inflationary pressures persist, wage increases continue to drive up service sector prices. The ECB’s decision-making on monetary policy will significantly influence the euro’s future direction. Investors should stay vigilant about the ECB’s policy stance and its potential impact on the euro. Sound decision-making should be exercised during periods of uncertainty.

4. Inflationary Pressures: A Tug-of-War Between Factors

Inflationary concerns are a complex interplay of factors. While overall price pressures are cooling, the service sector experiences upward price adjustments driven by wage increases. Investors should closely monitor inflation data, particularly wage and service sector price movements, to make informed trading decisions concerning the euro.


As the Eurozone, Germany, and France grapple with weaker economic data, investors are advised to proceed with caution in their euro-related trades. Continuous monitoring of market movements, economic indicators, and central bank policies is crucial for successful trading. Adjusting trading positions and strategies based on prevailing economic conditions will enable investors to adapt to market fluctuations. Remember that trading carries inherent risks, and seeking guidance from professional financial advisors or investment experts is advisable before making any significant trading decisions.


The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Investors should exercise due diligence and conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. Any losses arising from investment actions based on the information provided are the sole responsibility of the investor. We do not bear any liability for direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of or reliance on the information provided. Investors should assess their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation before making any investment decisions.